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Date of publication (more or less): January 19, 1997

How I Lost My Guru Status

If you know anything about computer technology you know that it is lorded over by a cadre of info-know-it-alls called, for lack of a better term, techie gurus.

Techie gurus are the people who somehow figure out the pluses and minuses of new technologies well before the average user. They look forward to COMDEX, the computer industry's biannual Las Vegas blowout and exposition. They may be fluent in several programming languages, and they may run their systems uncased, so that they can see with their own eyes what is happening under the hood. They write the articles in all the computer magazines. They stay up late every night solving tech problems phoned in by friends and colleagues. Most are generous and unfailingly helpful.

If you know all this, and you are at all familiar with what I write about in these pages, then you know that I don't meet all the stringent qualifications of techie guru. I have never been to COMDEX, and indeed have only been in Las Vegas once, to rent a car. I am monolingual, speaking English only, and a smattering of HTML. I buy the same magazines you do, to figure out what's going on. I figure anyone who calls me for techno guidance deserves what they get.

But it was not always thus. I was once a budding guru. I had swept my combined knowledge of the cyber scene into a pile of wisdom about four inches high. My future as oracle seemed secure. Until one day about 1984 when I opened my mouth and disqualified myself forever. The following recollection is 100% true. I remember it as if it were yesterday....

"So, are there any questions?" I asked the people in the corporate amphitheater. They were spending their lunch hour getting a glimpse of the future from me, and I was laying it on the line for them.

A hand shot up. "Mr. Finley," said a man in a tweed suit, "I'm buying a new system, and wondering if I should get a color monitor."

"Go for it," I said. "But know that the color graphics cards in today's PCs are only capable of showing 16 colors, and none of them look quite right. My feeling is that color is a fad. When the dust settles on the color question, a dozen years from now, most computer users will be sitting just like we do today, in front of monochrome monitors like my old reliable amber screen. People don't need color, and it doesn't give us much beyond a headache. Next?"

A woman in the second row spoke up. "Have you seen the Apple Lisa?" What do you think of the future of graphics-based computing?"

"It's a fascinating experiment," I replied. "But a doomed one, in my opinion, because it runs counter to what we know about system limitations. Graphics-based applications are terrible memory hogs. To be successful, you would need four things. First, you would need unthinkably huge hard drives to store files on, like a hundred megabytes, or even more." A gasp wet up at the mention of megabytes.

"Second, you would need a microprocessor powerful enough to crunch these huge files in a timely manner. The AT system IBM is developing will run at a screaming clock speed of 10 MHz. It will utilize a wide 16-bit datastream. It has over a million transistors embedded in it. Future chips will be even bigger, but there is a limit to how tiny things can be. To handle graphics-based files, chip density would have to be double or even triple. How likely is that?

"Third," I continued, "the Lisa was a lab experiment at Xerox. I have heard that Apple is preparing a follow-up to the Lisa. But think about it. Apple is not about to dump its flagship computer, the Apple IIe, with its enormous installed base, for the parlor tricks of the Lisa. It would be like Volkswagen discontinuing the Beetle.

"And if Apple won't do it, what chance is there that IBM, the only computer company sensible businesses will ever buy from, will make the change? An IBM computer that shows pictures? Right. And where would they get this operating system, from tiny Microsoft? But it's nice to dream."

A man in back had a final question. "Will networks ever catch on?"

"Good question," I said. "I've seen these networks and they are extremely clunky. They hook PCs up to other PCs and they share data like a big computer and terminals. I have to ask, why? The whole point of personal computing is to escape the mainframe mentality. This networking business, if it takes off, will just turn something simple into something huge and unmanageable.

"I mean, so what if you hook all the world's computers together? What could you do, look at other people's phone bills? That's an idea that has nowhere to go.

"In fact, I'd stake my reputation on it."

Stimulate the economy, give a poet a dollar.

I enjoyed serving this essay up for you, and I did it for free. But this writer is currently out of work, and a bit of revenue would gladden his heart. If you'd like to contribute to this site, consider dropping a $1 tip in the "Honor Box" here. Just click the CLICK TO PAY image here. Thanks - Mike

Michael Finley is co-author with Harvey Robbins of THE NEW WHY TEAMS DON'T WORK.Visit Michael Finley at his home page, or e-mail him at mfinley@mfinley.com

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